The Asian casino market is experiencing a potential oversupply of gaming venues, with major hubs like Macau and Japan seeing financial strain. Industry analysts note that recent investment levels have not generated proportional returns in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Market Saturation and Financial Performance
Paul Steelman, CEO of Steelman Partners, identifies a definite oversaturation of casinos across the region. This observation contrasts with Las Vegas Sands founder Sheldon Adelson’s 2007 prediction that Asia could support ten markets the size of Las Vegas. Currently, Philippine gaming revenue dropped 16% in the first quarter of the year, while five of the six Macau concessionaires reported earnings below 2019 levels.
Financial data indicates a disconnect between capital expenditure and profit growth. Estimates suggest approximately $21 billion has been invested in Asian land-based gaming since 2019. However, regional EBITDA has remained relatively flat, rising from $13.6 billion in 2018 to $13.7 billion in 2025. John DeCree of CBRE Capital Advisors notes that while a supply glut exists, the primary challenge involves projects struggling to ramp up operations effectively.
A 2019 report co-authored by DeCree and analyst Grant Govertsen originally projected a $65 billion pipeline of new projects by 2025. The analysis calculated that regional EBITDA would need to reach $27.7 billion to justify the proposed properties outside of Japan. The pandemic delayed some of this supply, but high-return investment opportunities remain scarce.
Earlier in 2022, the Japanese market demonstrated similar demand constraints. Despite being the world’s third-largest economy at the time, only one qualified bidder emerged for three integrated resort licenses.